Why do wine market forecasts differ so much?

Because each source uses different metrics, scopes, and assumptions, leading to major discrepancies in projections.

What is the current size of the global wine market?

Estimates range from $336 billion to $515 billion in 2024, depending on the source.

How much is the sustainable wine segment worth?

Roughly $11 billion in 2024, about 2.75% of the global market.

Will sustainable wines dominate the market?

Unlikely in the near future; even by 2030, they are expected to remain a minority segment.

Are no and low-alcohol wines a growth trend?

Yes, they show high growth potential, though current and future values vary widely among analysts.

Wine Market Forecasts: Uncertain Outlook for Wine Market Growth

Wine market forecasts increasingly incomprehensible

Although all major wine market observers agree on an overall growth in the wine business over the next five years, the figures differ significantly, making it difficult to identify the most realistic forecast. Perhaps there’s too much optimism surrounding the growth of sustainable wines.

By Fabio Piccoli

Wine market forecasts are increasingly contradictory, with divergent figures from leading analysts. While optimism remains about growth over the next five years, discrepancies in current data and future projections cast doubt on their reliability. This article explores the confusion, especially around sustainable and low-alcohol wine trends, urging caution and clarity.

Making predictions about the evolution of the wine market feels like playing the lottery. You can throw in any number and hope for the best. This impression became clear to me after reviewing several market forecast reports that revealed a rather chaotic picture, with figures that seem more random than the result of any reliable analytical criteria.

While it’s understandable that forecasting is tough in such a complex and unusual phase, what is truly unacceptable is how even current baseline data can vary so widely among different sources.

Let me provide a few examples:

Grand View Research: global wine industry revenue in 2024 was $515 billion; projected to reach $812.9 billion by 2030 (CAGR 8.1%)
Data Bridge Market Research: 2024 market value $397.6 billion; forecast of $545.4 billion by 2032 (CAGR 4.03%)
Businesswire Research & Markets: from $385 billion to $528 billion by 2030
MarkNtel Advisors: from $336 billion to $462.2 billion by 2030
Statista: from $340 billion to $450 billion by 2030, with CAGR under 4%

I also looked at specific segments like sustainable (organic) wines and no/low-alcohol wines and discovered some interesting things. Despite varying projections, most sources agree that sustainable wine generated just over $11 billion in 2024, representing only about 2.75% of the total wine market.

Frankly, I expected a higher figure. Even with a CAGR of about 10%, reaching $21.5 billion by 2030, sustainable wines will still represent a small slice of the global wine market.

This suggests we should be cautious when envisioning a future dominated by sustainable wines, as conventional wine will still prevail.

A final note on no and low-alcohol wines, a hot topic today. There are significant discrepancies here as well, especially in long-term projections.

Fact.MR: current value $2.57 billion, forecast $7.64 billion by 2035 (CAGR 10.4%)
Global Growth Inside: similar figures but reaching over $7 billion by 2032
Statista: from $2.5 billion now to doubling by 2030

Reading all these numbers, the first impression is that wine market data remains vague, with no economic observatory capable of offering certainty.

When it comes to forecasts, things get even worse—we seem to be entering astrology rather than economics.

If there’s one thing that emerges clearly, it’s that the real booming business is selling wine market forecast reports, considering the high fees these research companies charge.

However, if we want to be more optimistic, we can note that nearly all these observatories—famous or lesser-known—agree on one thing: the wine business will grow in the next five years. That alone should give us more confidence in the wine sector’s future.